Required Funding
The long-term funding of infrastructure to support the growing transport demand of the region is perceived as a significant challenge for SEQ.In order to assess the funding required to deliver the Proposed Regional Strategic Transport Plan in the periods 2016 to 2031 and 2032 to 2041, the cost of each project has been determined from either existing plans or by employing unit cost rates.The estimated investment required for each project for the periods ending at 2031 and 2041, respectively, has been outlined in Table 4?5.
Investment Scenarios
Based on the estimated cost of each project, the proposed level of investment required for the “Base” and “Advanced” Scenarios is shown below in Table 5?1.It is emphasised that these values only include major projects (above $100 million per project) as already indicated in previous Sections.

Table 5 1: Table summarising 2019 to 2031 and 2032 to 2041 Investment Requirements (in billion)
The largest amount of investment is anticipated to be required during the period 2018 to 2031 with a total estimate of $46.8bn (for Base plus Advanced Scenarios).This funding is required to achieve a transport network that will keep SEQ moving with an acceptable to high Level of Service, support the anticipated significant growth in SEQ and meet the SEQ regional vision of a 45 minute region and 30 minute cities
Now to 2031 Spending Horizon
The estimated total investment to 2031 is $46.8bn. The bulk of the overall spend is related to the Base Scenario with $35.9bn to 2031. This includes investments that are either committed, currently planned, ready for implementation and are also identified as potential transport solutions by Government (Federal, State and Local); characteristic examples include Cross River Rail, Brisbane Metro, North-West Transport Corridor, Sunshine Coast Light Rail and the M1 Upgrades.
Of that $35.9bn, it is estimated that about $9.6bn of the Base Scenario spend is already committed funding. Committed funding is that which is already known to have been committed as part of Government forward estimates. Projects that have committed funding include Cross River Rail, Brisbane Metro, Pacific Motorway and Bruce Highway Upgrade projects.
The Advanced Scenario will add an extra $10.9bn over 13 years to the required level of investment by 2031. The bulk of this investment is required to achieve a strong level of regional connectivity through Faster Rail between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast and Ipswich.
Average Annual Spend Rate to 2031
The average annual spend rate to 2031 to achieve the Advanced Scenario (Base plus Advanced) is $3.6bn per year (see Figure 5?2). A modest increase to this value is expected, once the minor projects (less than $100 million) are added. However, this total investment rate achieves the vision of 45 minute regional connectivity and ½ hour Smart Cities.
The Advanced Scenario adds $0.8bn to the $2.8bn of the Base Scenario per year to 2031. The Base Scenario alone will not achieve the regional connectivity target, however, it will move some way towards the ½ hour Smart City objective.
2032 to 2041 Spending Horizon
The estimated total investment from 2032-2041 is $16.9bn. This is split between the Base Scenario ($8.0bn) and the Advanced Scenario ($8.9bn).
For the 2032 to 2041 horizon the mix includes a larger proportional investment in roads with the Advanced Scenario and a proportionally similar level of investment in public transport and active transport for both the Base and Advanced Scenarios.
Similar to 2019-2031 the Advanced Scenario includes extensions for Faster Rail which will strengthen regional connectivity. The Advanced Scenario also adds the remaining elements of the inner and outer ring roads in Brisbane during this period.

Figure 5?1: Base and Advanced Scenario Annual Spend Rates 2019-2031 and 2032-2041
Average annual spend rate to 2041
The Advanced Scenario from 2032 to 2041 results in an annual spend rate of $1.7bn (without projects of less than $100 million). The annual rate for the Base Scenario alone is $0.8bn with the Advanced projects alone adding another $0.9bn per year.

Figure 5 2: Base and Advanced Scenario Annual Spend Rates 2019-2031 and 2032-2041

Figure 5?3: Base and Advanced Scenario Cashflow Profile Estimate
Affordability of the Plan
Annual Capital Spend Rate
The annual spend rate on transport infrastructure in SEQ has historically been between $2 – 3bn (SEQ City Deal Gateway 1 Report, 2016) – see Figure 5 4.

Figure 5 4: Historical Rate of Transport Infrastructure Expenditure (Source: SEQ City Deal Gateway 1 Report).
Queensland Transport and Roads Investment Program (QTRIP)
Queensland Transport and Roads Investment Program (QTRIP) data provides detail of the transport and road infrastructure projects that the Queensland Government plan to deliver.
The QTRIP data shows that:
- approximately 60% of all state-wide investment is spent within SEQ
- average annual expenditure within SEQ was historically $5bn per year between financial year 09/10 and financial year 12/13/
- average annual expenditure within SEQ has declined over the previous five financial year periods to below $2B per annum
The general trend shown in ABS data is consistent with the QTRIP data, noting a higher average annual expenditure prior to FY12/13.
The trends in expenditure shown in QTRIP and ABS data confirm that investment in SEQ transport infrastructure has fallen below the average $2 – $5bn per annum spend that did occur in SEQ from around 2008-2013.
Overall Spend Rate
The overall spend rate between 2019 and 2041 for the Advanced Scenario (Base plus Advanced in total) corresponds to an annual rate of $2.77bn which is relatively consistent with the recent historical $3bn spend rate.
The cashflow profile (annual investments) between 2019 and 2041 shows the level of commitment to deliver the required infrastructure for the Base and Advanced Scenarios, noted in Figure 5 3. This shows that a “bow wave” of investment is required prior to 2025; these earlier costs are primarily related to the large committed and funded projects such as Cross River Rail and the Brisbane Metro.
After about 2023, the Advanced Scenario spend comes into play, with investment subsequently declining steadily towards 2031. The spend profile beyond 2032 to 2041 is relatively low at a total of $1.7bn per year when compared to the recent historical trend at $2-3bn.
The overall profile also indicates that time is relatively tight to be able to plan, design, fund and deliver the projects within the 2031 horizon, at which point it is expected that the transport challenges will have become exacerbated in response to SEQ’s growth.
It is anticipated that in the period 2032 to 2041 both total spend as well as the annual spend will be significantly lower, since many of the larger infrastructure projects will have been delivered.
In this period the bulk of the anticipated spend is defined by the Advanced Scenario requirements. This investment includes a) the completion of Faster Rail to Toowoomba and also to Sunshine Coast b) the development of two other major road links in Brisbane, the East-West Link and Centenary Motorway Bypass (Alternative Link from the Sumners Road Interchange to Legacy Way).