Effects of Transformative Technologies
The mobility projections in Regional Outlook are based on the anticipated significant population and employment growth, but there are also critical transformative transport technologies that have the potential to dramatically influence the future of transport in SEQ both in terms of demand and supply.
How will transport change in the future?
Transformative technologies will influence mobility in SEQ over the next three decades. These technological changes have started, and depending on technical, financial, economic, and legislative developments, many will take hold relatively quickly when compared to previous transformative changes in history. The changes that have been considered as part of this project include:
- Autonomous Vehicles (AV’s) / Connected Vehicles (CV’s)
- Electrification and Hydrogen Fuel Vehicles
- Shared Mobility
- Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS)
- Demand Responsive Transport (DRT)
- Technology improvements enabling trends such as telecommuting
- New-age transport technologies
Autonomous Vehicles (AV’s) / Connected Vehicles (CV’s) – Autonomous vehicles, using driverless vehicle technology, operate in isolation from other vehicles and rely on sensors to understand the environment that surrounds them. The development of autonomous vehicles or driverless vehicles is starting to converge with connected vehicle technology. Connected vehicles communicate with each other and with the infrastructure surrounding them. There is a growing awareness that the two, connected and autonomous systems, will need to complement one another to create a viable self-driving car: the connected autonomous vehicle. AV’s and CV’s may improve the effective traffic carrying capacity of the road network (surface streets and motorways).
Electrification and Hydrogen Fuel Vehicles – Electric Vehicles (EV’s) use an electric motor for propulsion rather than an internal combustion engine (ICE). There are two main types of EVs: battery EVs, which operate solely on electricity, and plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs), which use a small internal combustion engine to supplement the battery and extend the distance they can travel. Electric vehicles are considered to be more environmentally friendly (quite often at the source) than the internal combustion engine (ICE) (diesel or petrol) and have the potential to reduce running costs. The actual whole-of-life cycle costs when compared to an ICE are not yet fully understood with the largest risk element being the battery/power cell. EV’s may not necessarily reduce travel demand per se, rather, they may serve to reduce the level of environmental impact.
Hydrogen fuel vehicles are similar to electric vehicles since they are powered entirely by electricity, however unlike EVs their refueling processes are comparable to conventional cars and trucks. Hydrogen power has a key advantage over EVs because they do not take several hours to recharge and they drive like a regular car, making hydrogen fuel vehicle more appropriate for larger vehicles with long-distance requirements or for drivers who lack plug-in access at home. Hydrogen fuel vehicles are also considered cleaner than electric vehicles since they emit only water. However, a key challenge to local acceptance of hydrogen fuel vehicles will be establishing hydrogen stations or fueling sites, which is relatively more difficult than setting up electric charge stations. In Australia, the ACT Government is due to receive 20 hydrogen cars in early 2019 and is building a refueling station for vehicles as part of its Hornsdale Windfarm project.
Shared Mobility – a concept that relates to business models under which users have access to goods or services without the burden or benefit of ownership. Shared mobility refers to rentals (Car sharing services, CityCycle etc.), car-pooling (Uber Pool, Waze carpool, etc.), car sharing (GoGet, Carhood), personalised transport services (taxis, Uber, GoCatch etc), courier and freight services (Sendle, UberRUSH, Shyp etc) and the like. The sharing economy may also influence telecommuting in the future, for example the co-location of offices as a new business model to enable workers from different businesses to share office spaces together thereby allowing workers to work closer to home.
Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) – Mobility-as-a-service refers to a service where technology enables customers to make informed choices about the best transport option to meet their needs, based on cost, time, or environmental impact. It also allows users to book and pay for their preferred option once, despite using multiple modes, with different pricing policies, along a single trip. Mobility-as-a-service seamlessly combines multiple modes of transport, including cars, mass public transport, demand responsive transport, and active transport. It is an extension of Shared Mobility. MaaS may reduce private vehicle ownership in the future.
Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) – a more personalised and responsive form of public transport. A DRT service allows customers to pre-book shared trips, connecting them to mass public transport (rail or busway in SEQ) and local facilities. In the future DRT will likely adopt real-time technology to offer customers flexible routing options. A variety of vehicles, appropriately matched to customer needs, could be used to provide a DRT service.
Technology improvements enabling trends such as Telecommuting – improvements in communications technology may give employees the ability to telecommute, to work from home or some other location. This change can save time, transport costs and may reduce peak period travel demands. Technology and communications infrastructure improvements such as the rollout of the National Broadband Network (NBN) and other new communications systems over time will allow faster internet connection speeds in Australia (at least in the order of 100Mbps+). There are also, and will continue to be, advancements in mobile networks (e.g.: 5G network or “fifth generation mobile” wireless data technology), teleconferencing (e.g. Skype for Business) and file sharing (e.g.: cloud storage such as OneDrive) that will strengthen the feasibility for telecommuting.
New-age transport technologies – transport proposals such as Hyperloop, drone transport for freight and passenger transport and “The Boring Company” are topical new-age transport technologies / opportunities.
The Hyperloop project is a high speed (1,000 km/h) transport ‘vacuum tube’ like system. It was originally proposed by Elon Musk to link Los Angeles to San Francisco. In Australia it is proposed to link Brisbane and Sydney, providing a connection via the Gold Coast that would allow passengers to travel between Brisbane and Gold Coast within 10 mins The technology currently relies on a vacuum tube-like system arranged in straight sections. It is understood that further technological developments are necessary to achieve a viable hyperloop design capable of navigating curves and steep terrain. The carrying capacity of Hyperloop is low, with current reports suggesting around 840 passengers per hour per direction which assumes that each 28-passenger capsule operates at two-minute headways. This carrying capacity is much less than the carrying capacity of traditional mass transit systems (e.g. Urban passenger rail at a minimum of 27,000 passengers per hour per direction with a 2-minute headway). Nevertheless, Hyperloop technology may have the potential to radically reduce travel times between major centres.
Drone transport is another developing technology for moving both passengers and freight, with trials of passenger drone technologies underway in China, Nevada and Europe as well as in the Middle East. In Australia drone technology has been tested by Australia Post and Amazon to facilitate online shopping deliveries in outer-metropolitan areas. Drone technology has the potential to change air passenger and freight transport, particularly within regional and remote parts of Australia, however further advancements in both technology and regulations are required to enable drone transport within urban population centres. The suitability of drone transport within cities is particularly challenging a) since the technology does not yet lend itself to mass transit and b) due to the space required for launch / landing sites to allow boarding and alighting of passengers across a city. China have recently unveiled the single person passenger drone (the EHang 184). It is understood that this single person (weight limit of 100kg, 23-minute flight range at 100km/h; about 40km) is going to be used in Dubai as a means of self-flying taxi transport.
Another developing technology by “The Boring Company” has the potential to both speed up and cut the cost of traditional tunnelling processes. The Boring Company, developed by Elon Musk, is currently investing in research and development of this technology which could reduce the diameter of traditional transportation tunnelling by half, cutting the cost of tunnelling by 3 – 4 times. The smaller tunnels will then be used to incorporate a smaller scale and slower “hyperloop” type of mass transit. A proposal is currently in place for a network in Los Angeles.
All of the new age transport technologies such as Hyperloop, drone transport and “The Boring Company” are understood to require further design and technological developments and community acceptance.
CSIRO Megatrends
As part of a global foresight project the federal government’s body for scientific research, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), have identified seven social, economic and environmental mega-trends that will likely have a major impact in Australia over the next 20 years. Two of these megatrends, the Silk Highway and Digital Immersion, are considered to be particularly relevant to transport futures.
The Silk Highway
Urban design and transport planning play a major role in unleashing a knowledge economy, since both facilitate human mobility and social connections. Despite the growth in digital communication, it is the physical face-to-face collaborations which are vital to create the connections that lead to new ideas, new businesses and more advanced knowledge. Physical social connections foster innovation and creativity. Connecting people to employment opportunities and strengthening transport connections to support face-to-face interactions will be critical to achieve strong economic growth and prosperity consistent with the CSIRO’s “Silk Highway” mega-trend as well as ShapingSEQ and the Advance Queensland Strategy policies.
The “Silk Highway” mega-trend reflects the structural change in global economies, being a shift away from industrialisation towards an advanced services sector economy (a “knowledge economy”). A more advanced knowledge / ideas services sector is the key source of Australia’s next wave of economic growth. Major transport projects such as mass transit and faster rail in SEQ directly support this strategy, as well as other significant government policies relating to land use and transport integration. Future transformational technologies, such as autonomous vehicles, connected vehicles, electrification, MaaS and demand responsive transport will be important, but will not replace the need for high quality mass public transport services. Instead, they will play a key role in supporting these mass public transit services that form a vital part of a mature transport network (roads and public transport systems).
The modelling projections in Section 2 indicate that across all major transport corridors there is a core role for mass transit that will move people more efficiently within SEQ. Technology innovations will likely not change this, rather they will complement and perhaps magnify the strengths of a mature transport network. Despite automation and digitisation, people in the future will still have significant mobility needs, and mass transit will remain a key feature of the transport network well into the future. Greater investment in strategic mass transit is needed to support growth in SEQ and also ensure SEQ is ready for any of these potential changes into the future.
Digital Immersion
The rapid growth in digitalisation is not a linear shift, it is exponential. Digitalisation is resulting in increased automation, which has the potential to decrease road crashes and increase capacities along key corridors. New technologies (including the Internet of Things (IoT)) and the rise of Big Data could also possibly lead to increased harmonisation of transport demand and supply. Transport planners and operators will be able to better understand in real-time where people are and where they would like to go, and how and at what time of day people would like to travel. The effects of digitalisation will therefore likely enable a much more efficient and the optimised movement of people and goods within and around our cities and regions. Future transport infrastructure is likely to consist of much more informatics and digital devices (Smart Cities), rather than traditional heavy or hard infrastructure.
Discussion on the Queensland Transport Policy Background Papers
To guide the development of the future Queensland Transport Policy, TMR has developed a series of transport future background papers (also discussed in Section 7.3.5.3), which seek to provide better understanding in the context around key transformational trends facing transport now and into the future.
The background papers identify the following broad opportunities and challenges for Queensland’s transport system:
Increased customer expectations
Customers of Queensland’s transport system have evolving and increasing needs and expectations which will likely continue in the future. With increasing social media use and online connectivity, transport system users expect to be heard and invited to participate in decisions about their transport system. To meet future customer demands, the future transport system will need to be flexible, safe, intelligent, user-friendly and fully integrated between modes.
Accelerated technology innovations
New technologies are rapidly being developed and influencing how people and goods are moved. Examples include driverless vehicles, cleaner vehicle technologies such as electric vehicles, Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems, drone technology, 3D printing, mobile communications, and real-time transport information applications.
Increase in Big Data
Powerful and cost-effective analytics tools are removing cost barriers to Big Data analytics. As a result, governments, private sector and individuals can more easily and practically use data. There is significant value in terms of dollars returned to the economy for every dollar that government spends on making data open to the public. Data production is growing at an exponential rate, and consumers are becoming more readily able to realise value from these data. Technology and data are empowering the private sector and citizens to play a greater role in delivering transport services.
Funding constraints
Currently funding arrangements rely on users to contribute a proportion of the total cost of the transport system through licensing and registration, fuel excise, public transport fares and freight network access charges. However, governments continue to pay most of the transport system cost. As technology continues to improve, it is highly likely that automobiles as a product will be replaced by mobility-as-a-service (such as driverless vehicles or demand responsive transit) and at the same time vehicle ownership will decline. These changes will challenge traditional revenue streams. Developments in fuel efficiency and alternative energy sources for powering vehicles may also impact existing revenue sources. The fiscal squeeze caused by increased social demands and reduced revenue sources means that current transport system funding levels are likely to be unsustainable. In the future, the way that transport investment is funded might involve creating the conditions for increased private investment, value capture, commercialisation opportunities, user-charging, more innovative demand management or even crowdfunding.
The background papers highlight the innovations that are anticipated to have the greatest transformational impact on transport systems. Emerging technologies, big data and sharing business models are revolutionising mobility which is consistent with the transformational technologies considered in the earlier Section outlining ‘How Transport will change in the future’. Long-term planning and stronger relationships between public and private entities will be required to meet the above challenges and capitalise on the opportunities that are coming.
Necessary foundations to support transformative technologies in SEQ
Indeed, it can be concluded that SEQ requires both a mature road and public transport network. These may then complement each to enable SEQ to take advantage of the potential positive impacts of transformative technologies.

These gaps will prevent realising the full advantages of emerging AV / CV technology (the blue dash line shows the concept of an inner and outer ring; the existing orbital motorway network is shown by the green line; ‘missing gaps’ of the orbital motorway network shown in the red dashed line)
Figure 2 12: The ‘gaps’ in Brisbane’s a) inner ring and outer ring orbital motorway and b) radial network
A mature strategic road (motorway) network
A mature road network will be essential for realising the full capacity improvements from new technology. This road network is related to the “hub and spoke” principles that form the basis of all advanced transport networks (road and public transport). A strategic road network comprised of inner and outer ring roads (motorways) gives a city reliable and efficient connectivity as well as the required resilience to adapt to emerging technologies.
SEQ’s strategic road network is missing some critical links within both the inner and outer rings as well as along its “spokes” (radial routes). This can be seen in Figure 2?12, which presents the “gaps” between the existing road network and a completed strategic motorway network for Greater Brisbane. The ultimate (mature) road network would include both an “inner” and “outer” ring road system with spokes to link across, thereby facilitating efficient movement. This principal is consistent with world-class cities such as Paris, London and Beijing who each have mature motorway networks. Mature transport networks offer multiple options with strong and complementary road and public transport networks, as well as redundancy and resilience in the system.
The green motorway corridors in Figure 2?12 that today carry around 1,800 vehicles per hour per lane (Source: Highway Capacity Manual, 2016) could, with fully connected vehicles and a high market penetration, achieve five times the current capacity to carry 9,000+ vehicles per hour per lane (or more) in the future. The red dashed lines in Figure 2?12, where the “gaps” in Brisbane’s motorway network exist today, are constrained by lower order surface roads and intersections consistent with “interrupted flow conditions”. The lower order roads are likely to benefit from, at most, a doubling or tripling in capacity (or as an absolute minimum a 30% reduction in delays at intersections). Not only do the “gaps” impede realising the future benefits of AV/CV along the western, north-west and inner western corridors but they also impede efficient transport movements today. Thus, with “gaps” in the strategic motorway network, the region overall is at risk of falling behind global standards today, but also falling even further behind as transformative technologies emerge and accelerate in market share over time.
In addition to the greater road carrying capacity, there is also greater economic benefit. Consider that currently new roadways, with a nominal current traffic carrying capacity of 1,800 vehicles per hour per lane, traditionally have a 20-30 year horizon design life. This same piece of infrastructure, with fully connected vehicles and a high market penetration, may achieve five times the current carrying capacity at 9,000+ vehicles per hour per lane (or more). This ultimately caters for a much longer design life horizon, in the order of 50 to 100 years. Global cities which already have a complete strategic motorway network in place will benefit from the increased longevity of their transport infrastructure, potentially eliminating the need for major motorway upgrades in the longer-term future. This is certainly for at least 50-100 years into the future or until the next transformative technology change comes into play. With a mature motorway network in place SEQ could potentially be better positioned to take advantage of this economic value.
A mature strategic public transport network
A mature strategic public transport network that is connected, fast, high-quality, flexible, multi-modal and attractive is necessary in order to compete with the private vehicle mode. Shared mobility has the potential to significantly lower the cost of mobility in SEQ and MaaS / DRT has the potential to service the complex mobility demands of community much better than low patronage public transport services. MaaS has the potential to streamline mode choice and fare integration along an entire journey incorporating public transport modes, making public transport easier to use and more attractive relative to the private vehicle. DRT has the potential to benefit public transport modes by improving the accessibility to public transport, improving the first-mile and last-mile connections. However, in order to maximise the benefit arising from MaaS / DRT in SEQ, a strategic public transport mass transit network that is high-quality and therefore competitive with the private vehicle (in terms of travel time, reliability and comfort) is necessary.
Mass transit along the SEQ major transport corridors (refer Figure 2?13), potentially supported by a MaaS platform and DRT first-mile and last-mile connections, will be the most efficient mode of transport for medium to long-haul distance trips instead of private vehicles. Mobility in the future is likely to include shared vehicles and connected autonomous vehicles with high-quality mass transit as the backbone. Mass transit solutions in SEQ may include faster rail between major urban centres, busway / metro and urban rail. A high-quality mass transit system will be essential to supporting an efficient transport system and also essential to achieving the step-change benefit from shared mobility, MaaS and DRT technologies.

Figure 2?13: Regional Connectivity Vision and Strategy 2041 – The yellow lines represent a strategic public transport network (mass transit spine). This network will be completed by connecting high-quality feeder public transport services. Within each city the mature public transport network would also be developed to service local transport needs and connectivity.
Advanced information technology and telecommunications (digital connectivity)
Advanced digital connectivity will be fundamental to enabling each of the transformative technologies discussed in this Section. Advancements in information technology and telecommunications in Australia are already well underway with the rollout of the National Broadband Network (NBN), and current work by industry to launch fifth generation network (5G network) mobile data technology. However further work to achieve better digital connectivity is needed and will be especially important as the demand for connected vehicles, connected infrastructure and new transport applications (e.g.: shared mobility) grow. Improvement to internet speeds, bandwidth and latency (time delays) is required to support the digital connections between both people and internet-enabled devices (Internet of Things, IoT), machines and infrastructure.
Overall Summary of Transformative Technology
The above discussion identifies the anticipated effect of transformative technologies on SEQ mobility. The key points of the assessment are:
Innovative technologies such as AV / CV’s, shared mobility including MaaS and DRT, electric vehicles and telecommuting are likely to influence mobility in SEQ. These innovations may take hold relatively quickly when compared to previous transformative changes in history.
Emerging transformational technologies have significant transport capacity benefits, as well as safety, economic and environmental benefits. This is consistent with the vision and strategies outlined in next section ‘Regional Vision’, as the SEQ region aspires to maximise the benefits arising from these emerging technologies.
A strategy is required to manage the gradual adoption of the transformative technologies – a transition plan.
Adaptability and resilience will be critical as SEQ seeks to respond over time. A transport network in SEQ that is strategically connected, in terms of physical infrastructure and digital communications, would provide adaptability and resilience in the longer-term, as transformative technologies are being implemented. Resilience will also become a stronger feature, and hopefully a positive by-product over time, as we continue to improve our road and public transport networks towards a more mature and world-class transport system.
The existing SEQ road network and public transport system has not matured to a level that would allow to the region to fully benefit from transformative technologies.
SEQ will fall behind other cities in adapting to transformative technology if the missing links in our strategic road and public transport networks are not completed before the changes start to take hold
The capacity benefits as well as safety, economic and environmental benefits of AV / CV’s will require a mature road network as well as a mature public transport network. There are missing strategic road links in SEQ which, if completed, would assist SEQ to fully realise the transport capacity benefits of AV / CV.
Thus, there is a primary need for an enhanced core strategic road network – motorway standard, “hub and spoke”.
Consider adoption of exclusive CV / AV lanes or other such transition measures as a method to realise early benefits as the CV/AV take-up over time. This may include AV / CV Toll Lanes.
Once the major road network is in place, and as CVs / AVs market share increases, the resulting road capacity increases will likely reduce the need for road link duplication into the future. This would then significantly improve the economic value of SEQ’s transport infrastructure links and potentially eliminate the need for major motorway upgrades in the longer-term (e.g. for 50 – 100 years) potentially until the next transformative technology change. Notwithstanding, new road links will still be required to connect new developments / areas.
There is a primary need for an enhanced core public transport network (multi-modal and hierarchical). This should include high quality mass transit spines, “hub and spoke”.
MaaS and DRT will increase the number of multi-modal trips, public transport patronage and provide first-mile or last-mile connectivity if there is an enhanced core public transport network in place that provides a high-quality public transport service (where high-quality public transport is fast, comfortable, convenient and therefore competitive with private vehicle modes).
MaaS and DRT technologies will meet customers’ evolving and increasing expectations; enabling users to make informed choices about the best transport option to meet their needs, based on cost, time, comfort, or environmental impact.
Realising the benefits of transformational technologies relies on the implementation of high quality information technology communications such as fast internet, NBN and 5G (and future Generation changes) coverage.
To realise the vision for SEQ to become a world-class region, the missing links of SEQ’s strategic transport system (road and public transport) will need to be better physically connected. Maturing the motorway and public transport networks will not only benefit users in the short-term but in the longer-term will enable SEQ to maximise the benefits of increased transport capacity, economic uplift, liveability and potential safety resulting from transformative technologies.